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  1. Imagine you are getting a coffee at Costa Coffee at Douglas Sea Terminal. You’re in the queue to order, and a guy wanders in, announces that there’s a tsunami coming. He then joins the back of the queue to order a coffee and waits patiently. This action reveals that he doesn’t really believe there is a tsunami coming.
  2. Alternatively, imagine you are getting a coffee at Costa Coffee at Douglas Sea Terminal. You’re in the queue to order, and a guy runs in, yells that there’s a tsunami coming, and runs out. This action reveals that at the very least, he might really believe there is a tsunami coming.

In the first scenario, it is reasonable for me to roll my eyes and wait my turn to order your coffee. In the second scenario, I would at least look out the window to figure out if there’s a big wave coming!

Aris Roussinos writes an excellent article about this issue in the context of climate change:

Personally, if I genuinely believed that Britain was going to become a post-apocalyptic wasteland within the next twenty years, I wouldn’t be campaigning for the Government to retrofit British houses with insulation: I’d be selling everything and fleeing to the hills in a desperate effort to keep my family alive. And yet they don’t. I have friends who go on XR demonstrations, and repeat their most apocalyptic prophecies, yet show no inclination of altering their middle-class lives in London: their revealed preferences therefore cast great doubt on their stated beliefs.

Why I am fleeing to the hills

Michael Josem is a long-term consumer advocate, most prominently as a global leader in combating fraud in the online gambling industry. He was in part the inspiration for the 20th Century Fox Movie, Runner Runner, starring Ben Affleck and Justin Timberlake.

Josem has over a decade of experience as a senior business leader working across various high-tech and online industries, and takes action to build a better community. His primary volunteer roles include service for the Commonwealth War Graves Commission, and Graih, the homelessness charity.